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Buducnost vs Arsenal Tivat Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:00

Buducnost

PPG 1.79 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Arsenal Tivat

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a clear edge.

+14.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-15.0%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.5%1-19.3%1-22.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.3%2-18.6%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.5%3-15.3%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-13.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.5% 59.9% 1.67 +14.4%

Draw 21.0% 32.3% 3.10 -34.9%

Away win 10.5% 20.8% 4.80 -49.6%

Over 2.5 43.5% — — —

Over 3.5 22.5% — — —

BTTS 36.3% 52.4% 1.91 -30.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob36.3%

H 68% / xG 1.9-0.6 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.5%

#2 2–0 15.3%

#3 3–0 9.5%

#4 1–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Buducnost1.9

Arsenal Tivat0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BUDUCNOST · PPG 1.79

ARSENAL TIVAT · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.79), Away POOR (0.86) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Buducnost (H) 68.5%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +14.4%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -34.9%

Arsenal Tivat (A) 10.5%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -49.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Buducnost face Arsenal Tivat in Montenegro - First League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Buducnost a 69% chance, the draw 21% and Arsenal Tivat 11%, so Buducnost are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Buducnost and 0.6 for Arsenal Tivat (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Buducnost are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 0.86 for Arsenal Tivat. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Buducnost vs Arsenal Tivat Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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