Buducnost vs Arsenal Tivat Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Montenegro - First League Regular Season - 30 Podgorica City Stadium· Podgorica Saturday, April 18, 2026 13:00

Buducnost PPG 1.79

0-2 MISS

Arsenal Tivat PPG 0.86

Home· +14.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Buducnost face Arsenal Tivat in Montenegro - First League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Buducnost a 69% chance, the draw 21% and Arsenal Tivat 11%, so Buducnost are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Buducnost and 0.6 for Arsenal Tivat (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Buducnost are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 0.86 for Arsenal Tivat. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 68.5%

Odds: 1.67 EV: +14.4%

Draw 21.0%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -34.9%

Away 10.5%

Odds: 4.80 EV: -49.6%

Model lean: Home

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 43.5% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 22.5% Odds: — —

BTTS 36.3% Odds: 1.91 -30.7%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 3-0 ✘

4th 1-1 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Buducnost

1.85

Arsenal Tivat

0.56

Model SuggestionHome +14.4% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.79), Away POOR (0.86) - Strong consensus