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NWS Spirit vs Marconi S. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 07:30

NWS Spirit

PPG 1.71 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Marconi S.

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-112.5%0-210.5%0-35.9%0-4+3.6%1 1-06.8%1-111.4%1-29.7%1-35.4%1-4+3.3%2 2-03.1%2-15.2%2-24.4%2-32.5%2-4+1.5%3 3-00.9%3-11.6%3-21.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.9% 24.4% 4.10 -1.2%

Draw 25.6% 26.3% 3.80 -1.6%

Away win 50.5% 59.5% 1.68 -15.2%

Over 2.5 52.3% 57.8% 1.73 -9.5%

Over 3.5 26.4% 35.1% 2.85 -14.9%

BTTS 52.1% 59.9% 1.67 -13.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob52.1%

A 50% / xG 0.9-1.7 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 0–1 12.5%

#3 0–2 10.5%

#4 1–2 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NWS Spirit0.9

Marconi S.1.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NWS SPIRIT · PPG 1.71

MARCONI S. · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.71) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.20)

Win probability 1X2

NWS Spirit (H) 23.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -1.2%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -1.6%

Marconi S. (A) 50.5%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

NWS Spirit face Marconi S. in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NWS Spirit a 24% chance, the draw 26% and Marconi S. 51%, so Marconi S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for NWS Spirit and 1.7 for Marconi S. (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NWS Spirit are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 2.20 for Marconi S.. This match finished 0-3.

NWS Spirit vs Marconi S. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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