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B. Strikers vs Holland Park H. Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 07:00

B. Strikers

PPG 2.33 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Holland Park H.

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-14.6%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.3%1-19.5%1-24.4%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.5%3-16.9%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-15.8%4+-22.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 65.4% 1.53 -19.7%

Draw 25.5% 22.2% 4.50 +8.8%

Away win 22.0% 21.7% 4.60 +0.7%

Over 2.5 59.4% 75.2% 1.33 -21.0%

Over 3.5 35.4% 54.1% 1.85 -34.5%

BTTS 52.6% 71.4% 1.40 -26.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -0.9%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 52% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–0 10.8%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

B. Strikers2.1

Holland Park H.0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

B. STRIKERS · PPG 2.33

HOLLAND PARK H. · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

B. Strikers (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -19.7%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +8.8%

Holland Park H. (A) 22.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

B. Strikers face Holland Park H. in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives B. Strikers a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Holland Park H. 22%, so B. Strikers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for B. Strikers and 0.9 for Holland Park H. (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, B. Strikers are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.75 for Holland Park H.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.8%. This match finished 3-2.

B. Strikers vs Holland Park H. Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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