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Subiaco vs Gwelup Croatia Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 07:00

Subiaco

PPG 0.00 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Gwelup Croatia

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-14.7%0-26.0%0-35.2%0-4+6.3%1 1-02.6%1-16.6%1-28.6%1-37.4%1-4+9.0%2 2-01.8%2-14.7%2-26.1%2-35.3%2-4+6.4%3 3-00.9%3-12.3%3-22.9%3-32.5%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.1%4+-21.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.0% 40.8% 2.45 -27.7%

Draw 21.5% 26.7% 3.75 -11.6%

Away win 56.4% 43.5% 2.30 +29.7%

Over 2.5 63.3% 71.4% 1.40 -11.4%

Over 3.5 57.0% 52.4% 1.91 +8.9%

BTTS 62.7% 76.3% 1.31 -17.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob62.7%

A 56% / xG 1.4-2.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.6%

#2 1–1 6.6%

#3 1–3 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.1%

#5 0–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Subiaco1.4

Gwelup Croatia2.6

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 57.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SUBIACO · PPG 0.00

GWELUP CROATIA · PPG 3.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Subiaco (H) 22.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -27.7%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.6%

Gwelup Croatia (A) 56.4%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +29.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Subiaco face Gwelup Croatia in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Subiaco a 22% chance, the draw 22% and Gwelup Croatia 56%, so Gwelup Croatia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Subiaco and 2.6 for Gwelup Croatia (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Subiaco are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 3.00 for Gwelup Croatia. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +29.7%. This match finished 5-1.

Subiaco vs Gwelup Croatia Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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