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Mandurah City vs Nedlands Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 07:00

Mandurah City

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Nedlands

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-13.2%0-24.6%0-34.4%0-4+6.4%1 1-01.8%1-15.1%1-27.4%1-37.1%1-4+10.5%2 2-01.4%2-14.2%2-26.0%2-35.8%2-4+8.5%3 3-00.8%3-12.3%3-23.3%3-33.2%3-4+4.6%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.3%4+-21.9%4+-31.8%4+-4+2.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.4% 32.3% 3.10 -18.3%

Draw 20.3% 25.0% 4.00 -11.3%

Away win 57.3% 54.6% 1.83 +4.9%

Over 2.5 69.8% 71.4% 1.40 -2.3%

Over 3.5 66.1% 51.5% 1.94 +28.2%

BTTS 63.0% 72.5% 1.38 -13.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob63.0%

A 57% / xG 1.6-2.9 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.4%

#2 1–3 7.1%

#3 2–2 6.0%

#4 1–1 5.1%

#5 2–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mandurah City1.6

Nedlands2.9

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 66.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MANDURAH CITY · PPG 1.00

NEDLANDS · PPG 1.75

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Mandurah City (H) 22.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -18.3%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -11.3%

Nedlands (A) 57.3%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV +4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mandurah City face Nedlands in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mandurah City a 22% chance, the draw 20% and Nedlands 57%, so Nedlands are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Mandurah City and 2.9 for Nedlands (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mandurah City are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Nedlands. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +28.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Mandurah City vs Nedlands Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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