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Curtin U. vs Murdoch M. Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 11:30

Curtin U.

PPG 0.00 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Murdoch M.

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 58.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.9%0-119.2%0-214.3%0-37.1%0-4+3.7%1 1-07.2%1-110.7%1-28.0%1-34.0%1-4+2.1%2 2-02.0%2-13.0%2-22.2%2-31.1%2-4+0.6%3 3-00.4%3-10.6%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.4% 25.0% 4.00 -27.8%

Draw 28.0% 25.0% 4.00 +7.2%

Away win 58.6% 61.7% 1.62 -5.1%

Over 2.5 43.9% 69.4% 1.44 -36.8%

Over 3.5 15.2% 48.3% 2.07 -41.1%

BTTS 45.9% 69.0% 1.45 -33.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob45.9%

A 59% / xG 0.6-1.5 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 19.2%

#2 0–0 12.9%

#3 0–2 14.3%

#4 1–1 10.7%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Curtin U.0.6

Murdoch M.1.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.9% · O3.5 PROB 15.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CURTIN U. · PPG 0.00

MURDOCH M. · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Curtin U. (H) 13.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -27.8%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +7.2%

Murdoch M. (A) 58.6%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Curtin U. face Murdoch M. in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Curtin U. a 13% chance, the draw 28% and Murdoch M. 59%, so Murdoch M. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Curtin U. and 1.5 for Murdoch M. (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Curtin U. are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 0.75 for Murdoch M.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 2-3.

Curtin U. vs Murdoch M. Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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