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Cockburn City vs Joondalup City Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 07:00

Cockburn City

PPG 0.80 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Joondalup City

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-16.2%0-27.0%0-35.4%0-4+5.2%1 1-03.6%1-18.2%1-29.4%1-37.1%1-4+6.9%2 2-02.4%2-15.4%2-26.2%2-34.7%2-4+4.6%3 3-01.1%3-12.4%3-22.7%3-32.1%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.3% 25.0% 4.00 -4.1%

Draw 23.4% 23.1% 4.33 +0.8%

Away win 53.3% 63.7% 1.57 -16.3%

Over 2.5 63.3% 63.7% 1.57 -0.6%

Over 3.5 48.7% 42.0% 2.38 +15.9%

BTTS 59.5% 62.1% 1.61 -4.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob59.5%

A 53% / xG 1.3-2.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 1–3 7.1%

#4 0–2 7.0%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cockburn City1.3

Joondalup City2.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 48.7%

Form & verdict PPG

COCKBURN CITY · PPG 0.80

JOONDALUP CITY · PPG 2.25

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Cockburn City (H) 23.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -4.1%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +0.8%

Joondalup City (A) 53.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cockburn City face Joondalup City in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cockburn City a 23% chance, the draw 23% and Joondalup City 53%, so Joondalup City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Cockburn City and 2.3 for Joondalup City (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cockburn City are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 2.25 for Joondalup City. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 3-1.

Cockburn City vs Joondalup City Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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