Today / Australia - New South Wales NPL / SD Raiders vs Sutherland S.

SD Raiders vs Sutherland S. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 07:00

SD Raiders

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sutherland S.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-18.2%0-26.4%0-33.3%0-4+1.8%1 1-07.3%1-111.4%1-28.9%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.1%2-17.9%2-26.1%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.3%3-13.6%3-22.8%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.2% 41.7% 2.40 -10.7%

Draw 26.3% 29.4% 3.40 -6.3%

Away win 36.5% 39.2% 2.55 -6.9%

Over 2.5 59.4% 58.8% 1.70 +1.0%

Over 3.5 33.8% 36.4% 2.75 -7.0%

BTTS 58.6% 64.5% 1.55 -9.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.6%

A 36% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 0–0 5.3%

#5 0–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SD Raiders1.4

Sutherland S.1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 33.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SD RAIDERS · PPG 1.00

SUTHERLAND S. · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

SD Raiders (H) 37.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -10.7%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.3%

Sutherland S. (A) 36.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

SD Raiders face Sutherland S. in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SD Raiders a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Sutherland S. 37%, so SD Raiders are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for SD Raiders and 1.6 for Sutherland S. (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SD Raiders are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Sutherland S.. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.0%. This match finished 2-2.

SD Raiders vs Sutherland S. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - New South Wales NPL Predictions