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Manly Utd vs Wollongong W. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 07:00

Manly Utd

PPG 1.83 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Wollongong W.

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-113.8%0-26.9%0-32.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.5%1-113.5%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.6%2-16.7%2-23.3%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.2%3-12.2%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.7% 34.5% 2.90 +0.6%

Draw 31.9% 30.3% 3.30 +5.3%

Away win 33.4% 45.5% 2.20 -26.5%

Over 2.5 36.8% 55.6% 1.80 -33.8%

Over 3.5 14.1% 33.3% 3.00 -34.6%

BTTS 48.1% 61.7% 1.62 -22.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.1%

D 32% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.7%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1✓ 13.8%

#4 1–0 13.5%

#5 0–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manly Utd1.0

Wollongong W.1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.8% · O3.5 PROB 14.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MANLY UTD · PPG 1.83

WOLLONGONG W. · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.83), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Manly Utd (H) 34.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +0.6%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +5.3%

Wollongong W. (A) 33.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -26.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manly Utd face Wollongong W. in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manly Utd a 35% chance, the draw 32% and Wollongong W. 33%, so Manly Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Manly Utd and 1.0 for Wollongong W. (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manly Utd are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.75 for Wollongong W.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Manly Utd vs Wollongong W. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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