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A. Niigata W vs Nojima Stella W Prediction— Japan - WE League

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 04:00

A. Niigata W

PPG 1.20 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Nojima Stella W

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.22)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-19.0%0-24.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.5%1-112.7%1-26.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.8%2-18.9%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.1%3-14.2%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% — — —

Draw 28.1% — — —

Away win 26.4% — — —

Over 2.5 46.5% — — —

Over 3.5 22.6% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.9%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Niigata W1.4

Nojima Stella W1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.6%

Form & verdict PPG

A. NIIGATA W · PPG 1.20

NOJIMA STELLA W · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.22)

Win probability 1X2

A. Niigata W (H) 45.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nojima Stella W (A) 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Niigata W face Nojima Stella W in Japan - WE League on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Niigata W a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Nojima Stella W 26%, so A. Niigata W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for A. Niigata W and 1.0 for Nojima Stella W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Niigata W are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.22 for Nojima Stella W. This match finished 0-2.

A. Niigata W vs Nojima Stella W Prediction— Japan - WE League

Match Preview & Prediction

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