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Omiya Ardija W vs JEF United W Prediction— Japan - WE League

Regular Season - 21 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 04:00

Omiya Ardija W

PPG 1.22 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

JEF United W

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.22) > Away POOR (0.80)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-17.2%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.7%1-111.0%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-18.5%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.0%3-14.4%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-12.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% — — —

Draw 26.4% — — —

Away win 22.6% — — —

Over 2.5 45.8% — — —

Over 3.5 17.3% — — —

BTTS 48.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.2%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.7%

#2 2–0 13.7%

#3 0–0 11.5%

#4 1–1✓ 11.0%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Omiya Ardija W1.5

JEF United W0.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 17.3%

Form & verdict PPG

OMIYA ARDIJA W · PPG 1.22

JEF UNITED W · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.22) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Omiya Ardija W (H) 51.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

JEF United W (A) 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Omiya Ardija W face JEF United W in Japan - WE League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Omiya Ardija W a 51% chance, the draw 26% and JEF United W 23%, so Omiya Ardija W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Omiya Ardija W and 0.6 for JEF United W (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Omiya Ardija W are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.80 for JEF United W. This match finished 1-1.

Omiya Ardija W vs JEF United W Prediction— Japan - WE League

Match Preview & Prediction

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