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JEF United W vs Cerezo Osaka W Prediction— Japan - WE League

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 04:00

JEF United W

PPG 1.33 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Cerezo Osaka W

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-19.1%0-24.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.5%1-112.7%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-18.9%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.0%3-14.1%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% — — —

Draw 30.8% — — —

Away win 25.6% — — —

Over 2.5 43.3% — — —

Over 3.5 22.3% — — —

BTTS 49.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.9%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 9.0%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JEF United W1.4

Cerezo Osaka W1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.3% · O3.5 PROB 22.3%

Form & verdict PPG

JEF UNITED W · PPG 1.33

CEREZO OSAKA W · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs P(Home)=43.6%

Win probability 1X2

JEF United W (H) 43.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Cerezo Osaka W (A) 25.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

JEF United W face Cerezo Osaka W in Japan - WE League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JEF United W a 44% chance, the draw 31% and Cerezo Osaka W 26%, so JEF United W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for JEF United W and 1.0 for Cerezo Osaka W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JEF United W are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.20 for Cerezo Osaka W. This match finished 0-1.

JEF United W vs Cerezo Osaka W Prediction— Japan - WE League

Match Preview & Prediction

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