Today / Beleza W vs A. Niigata W

Beleza W vs A. Niigata W Prediction

Saturday, May 16, 2026

Beleza W

PPG 1.90 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

A. Niigata W

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.90), Away GOOD (1.90)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-16.9%0-22.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.8%1-111.5%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.5%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.3%3-15.2%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% — — —

Draw 25.5% — — —

Away win 22.0% — — —

Over 2.5 47.4% — — —

Over 3.5 23.9% — — —

BTTS 52.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.1%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0 13.8%

#3 2–0 11.4%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 2–1✓ 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Beleza W1.7

A. Niigata W0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 23.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BELEZA W · PPG 1.90

A. NIIGATA W · PPG 1.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.90), Away GOOD (1.90)

Win probability 1X2

Beleza W (H) 52.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

A. Niigata W (A) 22.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Beleza W face A. Niigata W on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Beleza W a 53% chance, the draw 26% and A. Niigata W 22%, so Beleza W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Beleza W and 0.8 for A. Niigata W (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Beleza W are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.90 for A. Niigata W. This match finished 2-1.

Beleza W vs A. Niigata W Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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