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LDU Quito vs Tecnico U. Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 14 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 21:30

LDU Quito

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Tecnico U.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.4%0-115.7%0-25.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.3%1-112.3%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.2%2-14.8%2-21.6%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.9%3-11.3%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.9% 61.0% 1.64 -44.4%

Draw 43.2% 27.4% 3.65 +57.7%

Away win 22.9% 18.9% 5.30 +12.8%

Over 2.5 25.8% 47.6% 2.10 -27.5%

Over 3.5 6.0% 26.3% 3.80 -46.3%

BTTS 45.9% 50.0% 2.00 -8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.9%

H 34% / xG 0.8-0.7 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 23.4%

#2 1–0 18.3%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 0–1 15.7%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

LDU Quito0.8

Tecnico U.0.7

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 6.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LDU QUITO · PPG 1.33

TECNICO U. · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

46%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

LDU Quito (H) 33.9%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -44.4%

Draw 43.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +57.7%

Tecnico U. (A) 22.9%

ODDS 5.30 · IMPLIED 18.9% EV +12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

LDU Quito face Tecnico U. in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives LDU Quito a 34% chance, the draw 43% and Tecnico U. 23%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for LDU Quito and 0.7 for Tecnico U. (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, LDU Quito are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Tecnico U.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +57.7%. This match finished 2-1.

LDU Quito vs Tecnico U. Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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