Today / Marburg vs Friedberg

Marburg vs Friedberg Prediction

Hessen - 28 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:00

Marburg

PPG 1.31 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Friedberg

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.31), Away AVERAGE (1.08)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-18.7%0-27.3%0-34.1%0-4+2.5%1 1-06.7%1-111.2%1-29.3%1-35.2%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.3%2-17.2%2-26.0%2-33.3%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.8%3-13.1%3-22.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.4% — — —

Draw 24.0% — — —

Away win 46.5% — — —

Over 2.5 56.5% — — —

Over 3.5 34.1% — — —

BTTS 58.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob58.6%

A 46% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 8.7%

#4 0–2 7.3%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marburg1.3

Friedberg1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.5% · O3.5 PROB 34.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MARBURG · PPG 1.31

FRIEDBERG · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.31), Away AVERAGE (1.08)

Win probability 1X2

Marburg (H) 29.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Friedberg (A) 46.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Marburg face Friedberg on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marburg a 29% chance, the draw 24% and Friedberg 47%, so Friedberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Marburg and 1.7 for Friedberg (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marburg are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.08 for Friedberg. This match finished 3-4.

Marburg vs Friedberg Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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