Today / Portugal - Segunda Liga / Lusitânia Lourosa vs AVS

Lusitânia Lourosa vs AVS Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 5 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 17:00

Lusitânia Lourosa

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDW ·

UPCOMING

AVS

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-18.8%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.0%1-112.6%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.0%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.1%3-14.3%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 47.6% 2.10 -5.7%

Draw 26.1% 34.5% 2.90 -14.6%

Away win 29.0% 30.8% 3.25 -3.5%

Over 2.5 50.6% 45.5% 2.20 +11.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.0% 4.00 +8.9%

BTTS 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

Home O1.5 39.9% 44.4% 2.25 -10.2%

Away O1.5 32.5% 29.4% 3.40 +10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -31.4%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 0–0 8.4%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lusitânia Lourosa1.4

AVS1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LUSITÂNIA LOUROSA · PPG 1.55

AVS · PPG 1.36

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

54%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.39, combined xG 2.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lusitânia Lourosa (H) 44.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -5.7%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -14.6%

AVS (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lusitânia Lourosa face AVS in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lusitânia Lourosa a 45% chance, the draw 26% and AVS 29%, so Lusitânia Lourosa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Lusitânia Lourosa and 1.0 for AVS (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lusitânia Lourosa are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.36 for AVS. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +13.6%.

Lusitânia Lourosa vs AVS Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Portugal - Segunda Liga Predictions