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Puskas A. vs MTK Budapest Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 33 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 18:00

Puskas A.

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

MTK Budapest

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 61% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-16.3%0-24.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.2%1-110.8%1-27.1%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.4%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.1%3-15.4%3-23.5%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.4%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 52.1% 1.92 -7.8%

Draw 25.7% 28.6% 3.50 -6.0%

Away win 26.3% 28.6% 3.50 -4.8%

Over 2.5 59.4% 61.7% 1.62 -3.8%

Over 3.5 36.2% 39.2% 2.55 -7.7%

BTTS 58.6% 66.7% 1.50 -12.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -12.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.6%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puskas A.1.7

MTK Budapest1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PUSKAS A. · PPG 1.20

MTK BUDAPEST · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Puskas A. (H) 48.0%

ODDS 1.92 · IMPLIED 52.1% EV -7.8%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -6.0%

MTK Budapest (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puskas A. face MTK Budapest in Hungary - NB I on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puskas A. a 48% chance, the draw 26% and MTK Budapest 26%, so Puskas A. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Puskas A. and 1.3 for MTK Budapest (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puskas A. are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.80 for MTK Budapest. This match finished 2-2.

Puskas A. vs MTK Budapest Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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