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O. Charleroi vs Kortrijk U21 Prediction— Belgium - Reserve Pro League

Regular Season - 26 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 18:00

O. Charleroi

PPG 0.64 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O3.5

Kortrijk U21

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 5.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-11.3%0-22.9%0-34.3%0-4+16.5%1 1-00.4%1-11.8%1-23.9%1-35.9%1-4+22.8%2 2-00.3%2-11.2%2-22.7%2-34.1%2-4+15.7%3 3-00.1%3-10.6%3-21.2%3-31.9%3-4+7.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+3.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 11.5% — — —

Draw 21.4% — — —

Away win 67.1% — — —

Over 2.5 78.8% — — —

Over 3.5 83.6% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 78%

O2.5 94%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 41.4%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)4.5 BTTS prob63.0%

A 67% / xG 1.4-4.5 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–4 6.6%

#2 1–5 5.9%

#3 1–3 5.9%

#4 0–4 4.8%

#5 2–4 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

O. Charleroi1.4

Kortrijk U214.5

COMBINED 5.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 83.6%

Form & verdict PPG

O. CHARLEROI · PPG 0.64

KORTRIJK U21 · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.64)

Win probability 1X2

O. Charleroi (H) 11.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kortrijk U21 (A) 67.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

O. Charleroi face Kortrijk U21 in Belgium - Reserve Pro League on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives O. Charleroi a 12% chance, the draw 21% and Kortrijk U21 67%, so Kortrijk U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for O. Charleroi and 4.5 for Kortrijk U21 (5.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-4. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, O. Charleroi are averaging 0.64 points per game versus 2.00 for Kortrijk U21. This match finished 0-2.

O. Charleroi vs Kortrijk U21 Prediction— Belgium - Reserve Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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