Today / Belgium - Reserve Pro League / F. Borains U21 vs O. Charleroi

F. Borains U21 vs O. Charleroi Prediction— Belgium - Reserve Pro League

Regular Season - 25 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:00

F. Borains U21

PPG 1.36 · HOME

2 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

O. Charleroi

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-12.0%0-21.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-02.9%1-15.3%1-24.9%1-33.1%1-4+2.2%2 2-03.9%2-17.1%2-26.6%2-34.1%2-4+2.9%3 3-03.4%3-16.4%3-25.9%3-33.7%3-4+2.6%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-18.2%4+-27.6%4+-34.7%4+-4+3.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% — — —

Draw 23.7% — — —

Away win 25.7% — — —

Over 2.5 70.0% — — —

Over 3.5 66.4% — — —

BTTS 66.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 78%

O2.5 94%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 41.4%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-5

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob66.7%

H 51% / xG 2.7-1.9 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.1%

#2 2–2 6.6%

#3 3–1 6.4%

#4 1–1 5.3%

#5 3–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

F. Borains U212.7

O. Charleroi1.9

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.0% · O3.5 PROB 66.4%

Form & verdict PPG

F. BORAINS U21 · PPG 1.36

O. CHARLEROI · PPG 0.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.36) > Away POOR (0.64)

Win probability 1X2

F. Borains U21 (H) 50.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

O. Charleroi (A) 25.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

F. Borains U21 face O. Charleroi in Belgium - Reserve Pro League on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives F. Borains U21 a 51% chance, the draw 24% and O. Charleroi 26%, so F. Borains U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for F. Borains U21 and 1.9 for O. Charleroi (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, F. Borains U21 are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.64 for O. Charleroi. This match finished 2-5.

F. Borains U21 vs O. Charleroi Prediction— Belgium - Reserve Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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