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Lierse K. U21 vs Lommel U21 Prediction— Belgium - Reserve Pro League

Regular Season - 26 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 18:00

Lierse K. U21

PPG 1.09 · HOME

0 – 7

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lommel U21

PPG 1.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-14.8%0-26.3%0-35.5%0-4+6.9%1 1-02.5%1-16.5%1-28.6%1-37.6%1-4+9.5%2 2-01.7%2-14.5%2-25.9%2-35.2%2-4+6.5%3 3-00.8%3-12.1%3-22.7%3-32.4%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.0%4+-21.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.5% 5.3% 19.00 +185.1%

Draw 20.5% 7.7% 13.00 +99.9%

Away win 58.1% 95.2% 1.05 -39.0%

Over 2.5 63.3% 87.7% 1.14 -27.8%

Over 3.5 57.0% 73.5% 1.36 -22.5%

BTTS 62.5% 44.1% 2.27 +41.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 78%

O2.5 94%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 41.4%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-7

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob62.5%

A 58% / xG 1.4-2.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.6%

#2 1–3 7.6%

#3 1–1 6.5%

#4 0–2 6.3%

#5 2–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lierse K. U211.4

Lommel U212.6

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 57.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LIERSE K. U21 · PPG 1.09

LOMMEL U21 · PPG 1.91

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.91) vs Home AVERAGE (1.09)

Win probability 1X2

Lierse K. U21 (H) 21.5%

ODDS 19.00 · IMPLIED 5.3% EV +185.1%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +99.9%

Lommel U21 (A) 58.1%

ODDS 1.05 · IMPLIED 95.2% EV -39.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lierse K. U21 face Lommel U21 in Belgium - Reserve Pro League on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lierse K. U21 a 22% chance, the draw 21% and Lommel U21 58%, so Lommel U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Lierse K. U21 and 2.6 for Lommel U21 (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lierse K. U21 are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.91 for Lommel U21. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +185.1%. This match finished 0-7.

Lierse K. U21 vs Lommel U21 Prediction— Belgium - Reserve Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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