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Lommel U21 vs RFC Liege U21 Prediction— Belgium - Reserve Pro League

Regular Season - 25 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:30

Lommel U21

PPG 2.64 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O3.5

RFC Liege U21

PPG 0.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 6.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 87.2% vs bookmaker-implied 51.5% — a clear edge.

+69.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.2%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-01.0%1-10.8%1-20.3%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-02.8%2-12.3%2-20.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.1%3-14.2%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-034.7%4+-128.7%4+-211.8%4+-33.3%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 78.3% 63.7% 1.57 +22.9%

Draw 14.6% 20.0% 5.00 -16.2%

Away win 7.2% 27.8% 3.60 -44.5%

Over 2.5 78.8% 75.2% 1.33 +4.8%

Over 3.5 87.2% 51.5% 1.94 +69.2%

BTTS 54.6% 70.9% 1.41 -23.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 78%

O2.5 94%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 41.4%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)5.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.6%

H 78% / xG 5.5-0.8 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–0 7.5%

#2 4–0 6.9%

#3 5–1 6.2%

#4 4–1 5.7%

#5 3–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lommel U215.5

RFC Liege U210.8

COMBINED 6.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 87.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LOMMEL U21 · PPG 2.64

RFC LIEGE U21 · PPG 0.27

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.64), Away POOR (0.27) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Lommel U21 (H) 78.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +22.9%

Draw 14.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -16.2%

RFC Liege U21 (A) 7.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -44.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lommel U21 face RFC Liege U21 in Belgium - Reserve Pro League on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lommel U21 a 78% chance, the draw 15% and RFC Liege U21 7%, so Lommel U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.5 for Lommel U21 and 0.8 for RFC Liege U21 (6.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-0. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lommel U21 are averaging 2.64 points per game versus 0.27 for RFC Liege U21. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +69.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Lommel U21 vs RFC Liege U21 Prediction— Belgium - Reserve Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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