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RFC Liege U21 vs Westerlo U21 Prediction— Belgium - Reserve Pro League

Regular Season - 26 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 18:00

RFC Liege U21

PPG 0.55 · HOME

0 – 7

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O3.5

Westerlo U21

PPG 1.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 5.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 81.0% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a clear edge.

+10.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-11.5%0-23.2%0-34.5%0-4+14.5%1 1-00.5%1-12.2%1-24.6%1-36.4%1-4+20.6%2 2-00.4%2-11.6%2-23.3%2-34.5%2-4+14.7%3 3-00.2%3-10.7%3-21.5%3-32.2%3-4+7.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.4%4+-20.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+3.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.6% 5.3% 19.00 +83.6%

Draw 21.1% 7.7% 13.00 +104.6%

Away win 66.2% 95.2% 1.05 -30.5%

Over 2.5 78.8% 87.7% 1.14 -10.2%

Over 3.5 81.0% 73.5% 1.36 +10.2%

BTTS 63.0% 44.1% 2.27 +43.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 78%

O2.5 94%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 41.4%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-7

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)4.2 BTTS prob63.0%

A 66% / xG 1.4-4.2 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–4 6.7%

#2 1–3 6.4%

#3 1–5 5.6%

#4 2–4 4.7%

#5 0–4 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RFC Liege U211.4

Westerlo U214.2

COMBINED 5.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 81.0%

Form & verdict PPG

RFC LIEGE U21 · PPG 0.55

WESTERLO U21 · PPG 1.91

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.91) vs Home POOR (0.55)

Win probability 1X2

RFC Liege U21 (H) 12.6%

ODDS 19.00 · IMPLIED 5.3% EV +83.6%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +104.6%

Westerlo U21 (A) 66.2%

ODDS 1.05 · IMPLIED 95.2% EV -30.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

RFC Liege U21 face Westerlo U21 in Belgium - Reserve Pro League on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RFC Liege U21 a 13% chance, the draw 21% and Westerlo U21 66%, so Westerlo U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for RFC Liege U21 and 4.2 for Westerlo U21 (5.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-4. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RFC Liege U21 are averaging 0.55 points per game versus 1.91 for Westerlo U21. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +104.6%. This match finished 0-7.

RFC Liege U21 vs Westerlo U21 Prediction— Belgium - Reserve Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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