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Waasland-B. U21 vs Kortrijk U21 Prediction— Belgium - Reserve Pro League

Regular Season - 24 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:30

Waasland-B. U21

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kortrijk U21

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 88.1% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a clear edge.

+19.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-12.2%0-23.8%0-34.3%0-4+9.1%1 1-01.0%1-13.5%1-26.0%1-37.0%1-4+14.7%2 2-00.8%2-12.8%2-24.9%2-35.6%2-4+11.8%3 3-00.4%3-11.5%3-22.6%3-33.0%3-4+6.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.9%4+-21.5%4+-31.7%4+-4+3.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.1% 25.0% 4.00 -43.6%

Draw 13.4% 25.0% 4.00 -46.4%

Away win 72.6% 61.7% 1.62 +17.6%

Over 2.5 88.1% 73.5% 1.36 +19.8%

Over 3.5 74.5% — — —

BTTS 77.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 78%

O2.5 94%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 41.4%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 84%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)3.5 BTTS prob77.5%

A 73% / xG 1.6-3.5 / O2.5 88% / BTTS 78%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.0%

#2 1–4 6.0%

#3 1–2 6.0%

#4 2–3 5.6%

#5 2–4✓ 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Waasland-B. U211.6

Kortrijk U213.5

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 88.1% · O3.5 PROB 74.5%

Form & verdict PPG

WAASLAND-B. U21 · PPG 1.40

KORTRIJK U21 · PPG 1.90

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.40) vs Away GOOD (1.90)

Win probability 1X2

Waasland-B. U21 (H) 14.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -43.6%

Draw 13.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -46.4%

Kortrijk U21 (A) 72.6%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +17.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Waasland-B. U21 face Kortrijk U21 in Belgium - Reserve Pro League on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Waasland-B. U21 a 14% chance, the draw 13% and Kortrijk U21 73%, so Kortrijk U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Waasland-B. U21 and 3.5 for Kortrijk U21 (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 88% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 78% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Waasland-B. U21 are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.90 for Kortrijk U21. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.8%. This match finished 2-4.

Waasland-B. U21 vs Kortrijk U21 Prediction— Belgium - Reserve Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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