Today / Fernwald vs Hummetroth

Fernwald vs Hummetroth Prediction

Hessen - 28 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:00

Fernwald logo
Fernwald
PPG 1.38 · HOME
3 – 0
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
Hummetroth logo
Hummetroth
PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.2%0-23.7%0-32.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-04.7%1-18.3%1-27.3%1-34.3%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.7%2-18.2%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-03.0%3-15.4%3-24.7%3-32.8%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-14.1%4+-23.6%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.4%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 43.4%
Draw 21.4%
Away win 35.2%
Over 2.5 71.9%
Over 3.5 51.1%
BTTS 71.2%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 3-0
xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob71.2%

H 43% / xG 2.0-1.8 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 71%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%
#2 2–1 8.2%
#3 1–2 7.3%
#4 2–2 7.2%
#5 3–1 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fernwald2.0
Hummetroth1.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.9% · O3.5 PROB 51.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FERNWALD · PPG 1.38

HUMMETROTH · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Fernwald (H) 43.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 21.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Hummetroth (A) 35.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fernwald face Hummetroth on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fernwald a 43% chance, the draw 21% and Hummetroth 35%, so Fernwald are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Fernwald and 1.8 for Hummetroth (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fernwald are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.33 for Hummetroth. This match finished 3-0.

PredictVantage

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