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Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:00

Slovan Liberec

PPG 1.79 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Mlada Boleslav

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+25.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.1%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.4%1-17.7%1-23.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.4%2-19.5%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.6%3-17.8%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.5%4+-18.6%4+-23.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.5% 57.1% 1.75 +25.1%

Draw 16.6% 27.4% 3.65 -39.4%

Away win 11.9% 24.4% 4.10 -51.2%

Over 2.5 65.6% 57.8% 1.73 +13.5%

Over 3.5 43.6% 35.7% 2.80 +22.1%

BTTS 54.6% 60.6% 1.65 -9.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 35%

Score Hit 24%

ROI -4.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 72% / xG 2.5-0.9 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 3–0 8.6%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slovan Liberec2.5

Mlada Boleslav0.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SLOVAN LIBEREC · PPG 1.79

MLADA BOLESLAV · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.79) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Slovan Liberec (H) 71.5%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +25.1%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -39.4%

Mlada Boleslav (A) 11.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -51.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slovan Liberec face Mlada Boleslav in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slovan Liberec a 72% chance, the draw 17% and Mlada Boleslav 12%, so Slovan Liberec are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Slovan Liberec and 0.9 for Mlada Boleslav (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.00 for Mlada Boleslav. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +25.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Slovan Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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