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FC Minsk vs Belshina Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Matchday 8 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 16:45

FC Minsk

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLL

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Belshina

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLD

// Model verdict

Home 59% chance

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-15.9%0-21.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.2%1-19.7%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.8%2-18.0%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-08.7%3-14.4%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-12.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.5% 59.9% 1.67 -7.3%

Draw 27.0% 32.3% 3.10 -9.8%

Away win 17.5% 20.0% 5.00 -7.5%

Over 2.5 45.4% 45.7% 2.19 -0.6%

Over 3.5 17.1% 26.6% 3.76 -21.4%

BTTS 45.9% 48.8% 2.05 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.9%

H 56% / xG 1.6-0.5 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.2%

#2 2–0 15.8%

#3 0–0 11.6%

#4 1–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Minsk1.6

Belshina0.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FC MINSK · PPG 2.00

BELSHINA · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

59%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

FC Minsk (H) 55.5%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -7.3%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.8%

Belshina (A) 17.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Minsk face Belshina in Belarus - Premier League on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Minsk a 56% chance, the draw 27% and Belshina 18%, so FC Minsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for FC Minsk and 0.5 for Belshina (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Minsk are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Belshina. This match finished 5-1.

FC Minsk vs Belshina Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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