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Garliava vs Kauno Z. B Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 10 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 16:30

Garliava

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Kauno Z. B

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.0% vs bookmaker-implied 78.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-13.1%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.8%1-17.0%1-21.6%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.7%2-17.8%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.5%3-15.9%3-21.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-011.9%4+-15.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.0% 78.7% 1.27 -13.6%

Draw 22.8% 18.2% 5.50 +15.2%

Away win 9.2% 14.3% 7.00 -21.4%

Over 2.5 52.3% 69.4% 1.44 -24.7%

Over 3.5 29.1% 48.8% 2.05 -24.2%

BTTS 45.9% 57.5% 1.74 -20.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.9%

H 68% / xG 2.3-0.5 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.7%

#2 1–0 14.8%

#3 3–0✓ 12.5%

#4 1–1 7.0%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Garliava2.3

Kauno Z. B0.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GARLIAVA · PPG 2.00

KAUNO Z. B · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Garliava (H) 68.0%

ODDS 1.27 · IMPLIED 78.7% EV -13.6%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +15.2%

Kauno Z. B (A) 9.2%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV -21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Garliava face Kauno Z. B in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Garliava a 68% chance, the draw 23% and Kauno Z. B 9%, so Garliava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Garliava and 0.5 for Kauno Z. B (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Garliava are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Kauno Z. B. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +15.2%. This match finished 3-0.

Garliava vs Kauno Z. B Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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