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Valerenga W vs Molde W Prediction— Norway - Toppserien

Regular Season - 7 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 16:00

Valerenga W

PPG 2.25 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Molde W

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.2%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.9%1-16.1%1-23.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.3%2-18.7%2-24.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.8%3-18.2%3-24.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-011.1%4+-111.6%4+-26.1%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.7% — — —

Draw 20.8% — — —

Away win 18.5% — — —

Over 2.5 63.3% — — —

Over 3.5 54.2% — — —

BTTS 58.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -48.0%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.6%

H 61% / xG 2.8-1.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 2–0 8.3%

#3 3–1 8.2%

#4 3–0 7.8%

#5 1–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valerenga W2.8

Molde W1.0

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 54.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VALERENGA W · PPG 2.25

MOLDE W · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=60.7%

Win probability 1X2

Valerenga W (H) 60.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Molde W (A) 18.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Valerenga W face Molde W in Norway - Toppserien on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valerenga W a 61% chance, the draw 21% and Molde W 19%, so Valerenga W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Valerenga W and 1.0 for Molde W (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valerenga W are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Molde W. This match finished 1-2.

Valerenga W vs Molde W Prediction— Norway - Toppserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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