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TransINVEST Vil vs Be1 NFA Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 10 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 16:00

TransINVEST Vil

PPG 1.25 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Be1 NFA

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.8% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a clear edge.

+10.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-12.7%0-24.7%0-35.4%0-4+11.5%1 1-01.1%1-13.7%1-26.4%1-37.5%1-4+16.0%2 2-00.7%2-12.6%2-24.5%2-35.2%2-4+11.1%3 3-00.3%3-11.2%3-22.1%3-32.4%3-4+5.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.6%4+-21.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+2.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.6% 18.2% 5.50 -18.4%

Draw 21.3% 22.2% 4.50 -2.5%

Away win 66.1% 71.4% 1.40 -7.5%

Over 2.5 78.8% 71.4% 1.40 +10.3%

Over 3.5 71.7% 48.1% 2.08 +49.1%

BTTS 63.0% 65.8% 1.52 -4.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)3.5 BTTS prob63.0%

A 66% / xG 1.4-3.5 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.5%

#2 1–4 6.5%

#3 1–2 6.4%

#4 0–3 5.4%

#5 2–3 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TransINVEST Vil1.4

Be1 NFA3.5

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 71.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TRANSINVEST VIL · PPG 1.25

BE1 NFA · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

TransINVEST Vil (H) 12.6%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -18.4%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -2.5%

Be1 NFA (A) 66.1%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

TransINVEST Vil face Be1 NFA in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TransINVEST Vil a 13% chance, the draw 21% and Be1 NFA 66%, so Be1 NFA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for TransINVEST Vil and 3.5 for Be1 NFA (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TransINVEST Vil are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 2.00 for Be1 NFA. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +49.1%. This match finished 0-2.

TransINVEST Vil vs Be1 NFA Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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