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Dukla Praha vs Karvina Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:00

Dukla Praha

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Karvina

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-113.2%0-28.6%0-33.8%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.9%1-113.0%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-04.9%2-16.4%2-24.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.6%3-12.1%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.1% 36.8% 2.72 -23.6%

Draw 27.9% 31.3% 3.20 -10.7%

Away win 44.0% 41.3% 2.42 +6.5%

Over 2.5 40.3% 55.6% 1.80 -27.5%

Over 3.5 20.0% 33.3% 3.00 -40.0%

BTTS 45.7% 62.5% 1.60 -26.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 17.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob45.7%

A 44% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.2%

#2 1–1 13.0%

#3 0–0 10.1%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dukla Praha1.0

Karvina1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DUKLA PRAHA · PPG 1.00

KARVINA · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

Chance this pick lands

46%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.36)

Win probability 1X2

Dukla Praha (H) 28.1%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -23.6%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.7%

Karvina (A) 44.0%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV +6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dukla Praha face Karvina in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dukla Praha a 28% chance, the draw 28% and Karvina 44%, so Karvina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Dukla Praha and 1.3 for Karvina (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dukla Praha are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.36 for Karvina. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Dukla Praha vs Karvina Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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