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Dainava vs Hegelmann B Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 10 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 16:00

Dainava

PPG 3.00 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Hegelmann B

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-13.7%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.3%1-18.3%1-23.1%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.8%2-19.4%2-23.5%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.6%3-17.1%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.2%4+-16.8%4+-22.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.2% 76.9% 1.30 -20.4%

Draw 23.3% 20.0% 5.00 +9.9%

Away win 15.5% 14.3% 7.00 +5.1%

Over 2.5 59.4% 66.7% 1.50 -10.9%

Over 3.5 35.0% 46.5% 2.15 -24.8%

BTTS 52.1% 61.0% 1.64 -14.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.1%

H 61% / xG 2.3-0.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.8%

#2 1–0 11.3%

#3 3–0 9.6%

#4 1–1 8.3%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dainava2.3

Hegelmann B0.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 35.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DAINAVA · PPG 3.00

HEGELMANN B · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=61.2%

Win probability 1X2

Dainava (H) 61.2%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -20.4%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +9.9%

Hegelmann B (A) 15.5%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dainava face Hegelmann B in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dainava a 61% chance, the draw 23% and Hegelmann B 16%, so Dainava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Dainava and 0.7 for Hegelmann B (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dainava are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Hegelmann B. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +9.9%. This match finished 3-2.

Dainava vs Hegelmann B Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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