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Tammeka vs Nomme Utd Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 16:00

Tammeka

PPG 1.20 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Nomme Utd

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.7%0-23.4%0-32.1%0-4+1.5%1 1-04.1%1-17.6%1-27.0%1-34.4%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.2%2-17.8%2-27.3%2-34.5%2-4+3.2%3 3-02.9%3-15.4%3-25.0%3-33.1%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-14.5%4+-24.2%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.5% 46.5% 2.15 -10.8%

Draw 24.8% 28.6% 3.50 -7.9%

Away win 33.7% 35.7% 2.80 -5.6%

Over 2.5 63.3% 69.4% 1.44 -8.8%

Over 3.5 55.3% 50.0% 2.00 +10.6%

BTTS 63.0% 73.5% 1.36 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.0%

H 42% / xG 2.1-1.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.6%

#2 2–1 7.8%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 1–2 7.0%

#5 3–1✓ 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tammeka2.1

Nomme Utd1.9

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 55.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TAMMEKA · PPG 1.20

NOMME UTD · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Tammeka (H) 41.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -10.8%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.9%

Nomme Utd (A) 33.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tammeka face Nomme Utd in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tammeka a 42% chance, the draw 25% and Nomme Utd 34%, so Tammeka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Tammeka and 1.9 for Nomme Utd (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tammeka are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.80 for Nomme Utd. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Tammeka vs Nomme Utd Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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