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Lauterach vs Kitzbuhel Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

West - 25 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:00

Lauterach

PPG 1.20 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Kitzbuhel

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 70.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-15.3%0-25.3%0-33.5%0-4+2.8%1 1-04.3%1-18.6%1-28.6%1-35.7%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.6%2-17.1%2-27.1%2-34.7%2-4+3.7%3 3-01.9%3-13.9%3-23.9%3-32.6%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.3%4+-22.3%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.1% 40.8% 2.45 -21.3%

Draw 21.5% 25.6% 3.90 -16.2%

Away win 46.4% 45.5% 2.20 +2.1%

Over 2.5 70.3% 66.7% 1.50 +5.5%

Over 3.5 49.2% — — —

BTTS 69.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob69.6%

A 46% / xG 1.6-2.0 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 7.1%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 1–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lauterach1.6

Kitzbuhel2.0

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.3% · O3.5 PROB 49.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LAUTERACH · PPG 1.20

KITZBUHEL · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Lauterach (H) 32.1%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -21.3%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -16.2%

Kitzbuhel (A) 46.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lauterach face Kitzbuhel in Austria - Regionalliga - West on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lauterach a 32% chance, the draw 22% and Kitzbuhel 46%, so Kitzbuhel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Lauterach and 2.0 for Kitzbuhel (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lauterach are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.18 for Kitzbuhel. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Lauterach vs Kitzbuhel Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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