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Babrungas vs Zalgiris B Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 10 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 15:00

Babrungas

PPG 3.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Zalgiris B

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-13.2%0-20.8%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.4%1-17.1%1-21.8%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.2%2-18.0%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.2%3-16.1%3-21.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-011.7%4+-15.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.0% 71.4% 1.40 -4.8%

Draw 22.8% 22.2% 4.50 +1.6%

Away win 9.2% 17.4% 5.75 -28.3%

Over 2.5 52.3% 62.5% 1.60 -16.3%

Over 3.5 29.8% 44.4% 2.25 -19.8%

BTTS 46.0% 60.2% 1.66 -23.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.0%

H 68% / xG 2.3-0.5 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.2%

#2 1–0 14.4%

#3 3–0✓ 12.2%

#4 1–1 7.1%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Babrungas2.3

Zalgiris B0.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BABRUNGAS · PPG 3.00

ZALGIRIS B · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Babrungas (H) 68.0%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -4.8%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +1.6%

Zalgiris B (A) 9.2%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -28.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Babrungas face Zalgiris B in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Babrungas a 68% chance, the draw 23% and Zalgiris B 9%, so Babrungas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Babrungas and 0.5 for Zalgiris B (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Babrungas are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Zalgiris B. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.6%. This match finished 3-0.

Babrungas vs Zalgiris B Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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