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Neman Grodno vs Isloch Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Regular Season - 8 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 14:30

Neman Grodno

PPG 2.50 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Isloch

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.3% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+10.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.7%0-18.6%0-22.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.4%1-110.9%1-22.8%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-17.0%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.8%3-13.0%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% 45.5% 2.20 +10.7%

Draw 28.7% 34.5% 2.90 -10.1%

Away win 21.1% 31.3% 3.20 -19.5%

Over 2.5 34.7% 44.2% 2.26 -21.6%

Over 3.5 10.7% 25.6% 3.90 -35.0%

BTTS 45.9% 54.1% 1.85 -15.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -16.9%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.9%

H 50% / xG 1.3-0.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.4%

#2 0–0 16.7%

#3 2–0 13.6%

#4 1–1 10.9%

#5 2–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neman Grodno1.3

Isloch0.5

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.7% · O3.5 PROB 10.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NEMAN GRODNO · PPG 2.50

ISLOCH · PPG 0.75

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=50.3%

Win probability 1X2

Neman Grodno (H) 50.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +10.7%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.1%

Isloch (A) 21.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Neman Grodno face Isloch in Belarus - Premier League on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neman Grodno a 50% chance, the draw 29% and Isloch 21%, so Neman Grodno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Neman Grodno and 0.5 for Isloch (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neman Grodno are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.75 for Isloch. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 0-1.

Neman Grodno vs Isloch Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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