Today / Spezia vs Sudtirol

Spezia vs Sudtirol Prediction

Regular Season - 35 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:00

Spezia

PPG 1.00 · HOME

6 – 1

FULL TIME

Sudtirol

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-112.5%0-26.2%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.6%1-113.5%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.4%2-17.3%2-23.6%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.6%3-12.6%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.2% — — —

Draw 30.2% — — —

Away win 32.6% — — —

Over 2.5 34.2% — — —

Over 3.5 15.5% — — —

BTTS 41.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob41.5%

D 30% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.6%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–0 12.6%

#4 0–1 12.5%

#5 2–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spezia1.1

Sudtirol1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SPEZIA · PPG 1.00

SUDTIROL · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.12)

Win probability 1X2

Spezia (H) 37.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sudtirol (A) 32.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Spezia face Sudtirol on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spezia a 37% chance, the draw 30% and Sudtirol 33%, so Spezia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Spezia and 1.0 for Sudtirol (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spezia are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.12 for Sudtirol. This match finished 6-1.

Spezia vs Sudtirol Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

More Football Predictions