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Logan Lightning vs Redlands Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Friday, May 15, 2026, 10:30

Logan Lightning

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Redlands

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-13.7%0-23.8%0-32.5%0-4+2.0%1 1-03.7%1-17.4%1-27.4%1-35.0%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.6%2-17.3%2-27.3%2-34.9%2-4+3.9%3 3-02.4%3-14.8%3-24.8%3-33.2%3-4+2.6%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.7%4+-23.7%4+-32.5%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.2% 48.8% 2.05 -21.7%

Draw 25.9% 26.0% 3.85 -0.2%

Away win 36.0% 34.7% 2.88 +3.7%

Over 2.5 63.3% 73.5% 1.36 -13.9%

Over 3.5 56.4% 51.8% 1.93 +8.8%

BTTS 63.0% 75.2% 1.33 -16.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -0.9%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.0%

A 36% / xG 2.0-2.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.4%

#2 1–2 7.4%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 7.3%

#5 1–3 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Logan Lightning2.0

Redlands2.0

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 56.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LOGAN LIGHTNING · PPG 1.00

REDLANDS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Logan Lightning (H) 38.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -21.7%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -0.2%

Redlands (A) 36.0%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +3.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Logan Lightning face Redlands in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Logan Lightning a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Redlands 36%, so Logan Lightning are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Logan Lightning and 2.0 for Redlands (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Logan Lightning are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Redlands. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.8%.

Logan Lightning vs Redlands Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Queensland Premier League Predictions