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Caboolture vs North Star Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 10:30

Caboolture

PPG 1.60 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

North Star

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-11.2%0-20.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.6%1-14.2%1-22.4%1-30.9%1-4+0.3%2 2-06.1%2-17.1%2-24.1%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.9%3-18.0%3-24.6%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-013.8%4+-116.0%4+-29.2%4+-33.6%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.9% — — —

Draw 21.0% — — —

Away win 14.1% — — —

Over 2.5 70.3% — — —

Over 3.5 66.5% — — —

BTTS 59.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -0.9%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.5%

H 65% / xG 3.4-1.2 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 7.1%

#3 3–0 6.9%

#4 4–1 6.7%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caboolture3.4

North Star1.2

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.3% · O3.5 PROB 66.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CABOOLTURE · PPG 1.60

NORTH STAR · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Caboolture (H) 64.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

North Star (A) 14.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Caboolture face North Star in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caboolture a 65% chance, the draw 21% and North Star 14%, so Caboolture are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Caboolture and 1.2 for North Star (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caboolture are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.83 for North Star. This match finished 2-3.

Caboolture vs North Star Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Queensland Premier League Predictions