Today / Al Raed vs Abha

Al Raed vs Abha Prediction

Thursday, May 14, 2026

Al Raed

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Abha

PPG 2.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.56) vs Home GOOD (1.75)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-19.6%0-27.9%0-34.4%0-4+2.6%1 1-06.9%1-111.4%1-29.5%1-35.2%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.1%2-16.8%2-25.7%2-33.1%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.6%3-12.7%3-22.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.8% — — —

Draw 26.5% — — —

Away win 43.7% — — —

Over 2.5 54.7% — — —

Over 3.5 32.0% — — —

BTTS 55.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob55.3%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.9%

#4 0–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Raed1.2

Abha1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.7% · O3.5 PROB 32.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AL RAED · PPG 1.75

ABHA · PPG 2.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.56) vs Home GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Al Raed (H) 29.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Abha (A) 43.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Raed face Abha on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Raed a 30% chance, the draw 27% and Abha 44%, so Abha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Al Raed and 1.7 for Abha (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Raed are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.56 for Abha. This match finished 2-0.

Al Raed vs Abha Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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