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Karlshamn vs Oskarshamns Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland

Södra Götaland - 8 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 12:00

Karlshamn

PPG 0.00 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Oskarshamns

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-110.4%0-210.5%0-37.2%0-4+5.8%1 1-04.8%1-19.8%1-29.9%1-36.7%1-4+5.5%2 2-02.3%2-14.6%2-24.7%2-33.2%2-4+2.6%3 3-00.7%3-11.4%3-21.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.5% 26.3% 3.80 -26.9%

Draw 25.2% 28.6% 3.50 -7.1%

Away win 60.3% 58.8% 1.70 +2.5%

Over 2.5 59.4% 62.5% 1.60 -5.0%

Over 3.5 34.7% 40.0% 2.50 -13.3%

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -55.7%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob52.6%

A 60% / xG 0.9-2.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 0–2 10.5%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 0–3 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlshamn0.9

Oskarshamns2.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLSHAMN · PPG 0.00

OSKARSHAMNS · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Karlshamn (H) 14.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -26.9%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.1%

Oskarshamns (A) 60.3%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV +2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlshamn face Oskarshamns in Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlshamn a 14% chance, the draw 25% and Oskarshamns 60%, so Oskarshamns are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Karlshamn and 2.0 for Oskarshamns (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlshamn are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 1.33 for Oskarshamns. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 1-5.

Karlshamn vs Oskarshamns Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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