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Berga vs Rappe Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland

Södra Götaland - 8 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 11:00

Berga

PPG 0.33 · HOME

6 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Rappe

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-18.0%0-25.0%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.7%1-112.0%1-27.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.0%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.6%3-14.5%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 51.3% 1.95 -12.4%

Draw 26.8% 28.2% 3.55 -2.9%

Away win 28.3% 30.3% 3.30 -4.0%

Over 2.5 52.3% 59.9% 1.67 -12.7%

Over 3.5 29.6% 37.0% 2.70 -12.0%

BTTS 54.6% 63.7% 1.57 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -55.7%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0 6.4%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Berga1.5

Rappe1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BERGA · PPG 0.33

RAPPE · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.33), Away POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Berga (H) 44.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -12.4%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -2.9%

Rappe (A) 28.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Berga face Rappe in Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Berga a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Rappe 28%, so Berga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Berga and 1.2 for Rappe (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Berga are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 0.33 for Rappe. This match finished 6-0.

Berga vs Rappe Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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