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Vastra Frolunda vs Kongahalla Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland · Matchday 8 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 11:00

Vastra Frolunda

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWL

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kongahalla

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 71% chance

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-12.4%0-21.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-04.3%1-16.3%1-24.6%1-32.3%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.7%2-18.4%2-26.2%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-05.0%3-17.4%3-25.5%3-32.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-19.3%4+-26.9%4+-33.4%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 54.6% 1.83 -2.6%

Draw 22.8% 26.3% 3.80 -8.0%

Away win 24.0% 29.0% 3.45 -10.3%

Over 2.5 63.3% 73.5% 1.36 -13.9%

Over 3.5 59.2% 51.8% 1.93 +14.3%

BTTS 63.0% 75.2% 1.33 -16.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 47.0%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.0%

H 53% / xG 2.7-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.4%

#2 3–1 7.4%

#3 1–1 6.3%

#4 2–2 6.2%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vastra Frolunda2.7

Kongahalla1.5

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 59.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VASTRA FROLUNDA · PPG 1.75

KONGAHALLA · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

71%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Win probability 1X2

Vastra Frolunda (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -2.6%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.0%

Kongahalla (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vastra Frolunda face Kongahalla in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vastra Frolunda a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Kongahalla 24%, so Vastra Frolunda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Vastra Frolunda and 1.5 for Kongahalla (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vastra Frolunda are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.67 for Kongahalla. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.3%. This match finished 4-0.

Vastra Frolunda vs Kongahalla Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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