Today / Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland / Kumla vs Skara

Kumla vs Skara Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland - 8 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 12:00

Kumla

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Skara

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-16.0%0-23.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.2%1-110.8%1-26.3%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.7%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.0%3-15.8%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.9%4+-22.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 44.8% 2.23 +14.6%

Draw 25.0% 29.4% 3.40 -9.0%

Away win 23.6% 39.2% 2.55 -23.9%

Over 2.5 59.4% 69.4% 1.44 -14.5%

Over 3.5 34.6% 47.6% 2.10 -27.3%

BTTS 58.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.6%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kumla1.8

Skara1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KUMLA · PPG 1.67

SKARA · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Kumla (H) 51.4%

ODDS 2.23 · IMPLIED 44.8% EV +14.6%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.0%

Skara (A) 23.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -23.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kumla face Skara in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kumla a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Skara 24%, so Kumla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Kumla and 1.2 for Skara (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kumla are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.33 for Skara. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Kumla vs Skara Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland Predictions