Today / Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland / Lidkoping vs Grebbestad

Lidkoping vs Grebbestad Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland - 8 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 13:00

Lidkoping

PPG 0.33 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Grebbestad

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-16.5%0-24.9%0-32.5%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.0%1-110.6%1-28.0%1-34.0%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.7%2-18.7%2-26.6%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.1%3-14.7%3-23.6%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.8%4+-22.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 46.5% 2.15 -13.4%

Draw 25.3% 28.6% 3.50 -6.9%

Away win 34.4% 34.5% 2.90 -0.2%

Over 2.5 60.1% 61.7% 1.62 -2.6%

Over 3.5 38.6% 39.2% 2.55 -1.6%

BTTS 58.8% 66.7% 1.50 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.8%

H 40% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–0 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lidkoping1.6

Grebbestad1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LIDKOPING · PPG 0.33

GREBBESTAD · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Lidkoping (H) 40.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -13.4%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -6.9%

Grebbestad (A) 34.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lidkoping face Grebbestad in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lidkoping a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Grebbestad 34%, so Lidkoping are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Lidkoping and 1.5 for Grebbestad (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lidkoping are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 0.00 for Grebbestad. This match finished 1-3.

Lidkoping vs Grebbestad Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland Predictions