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Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand
Södra Svealand - 8
Thursday, May 14, 2026
11:00
Nykoping
PPG 3.00
1-0
HIT CS4
Lindo FF
PPG 1.33
Home· +18.4%
🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
64.0%
Odds: 1.85
EV: +18.4%
Draw
21.8%
Odds: 3.70
EV: -11.6%
Away
14.2%
Odds: 3.40
EV: -31.0%
Model lean:
Home
Result: Home ✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
60.1%
Odds: 1.53
-8.1%
Over 3.5
39.1%
Odds: 2.30
-10.1%
BTTS
52.1%
Odds: 1.45
-24.5%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘
BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st
2-0
✘
2nd
3-0
✘
3rd
2-1
✘
4th
1-0
✔
5th
1-1
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Nykoping
2.43
Lindo FF
0.74
Model Suggestion
Home
+18.4%
ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market:
Home.
Verdict & Form
🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=64.0%