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Nykoping vs Lindo FF Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand - 8 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 11:00

Nykoping

PPG 3.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Lindo FF

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+18.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-13.1%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.2%1-17.6%1-22.8%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.2%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.0%3-17.4%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.8%4+-18.0%4+-23.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.0% 54.1% 1.85 +18.4%

Draw 21.8% 27.0% 3.70 -11.6%

Away win 14.2% 29.4% 3.40 -31.0%

Over 2.5 60.1% 65.4% 1.53 -8.1%

Over 3.5 39.1% 43.5% 2.30 -10.1%

BTTS 52.1% 69.0% 1.45 -24.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.1%

H 64% / xG 2.4-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.4%

#2 3–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 9.2%

#4 1–0✓ 10.2%

#5 1–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nykoping2.4

Lindo FF0.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NYKOPING · PPG 3.00

LINDO FF · PPG 1.33

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=64.0%

Win probability 1X2

Nykoping (H) 64.0%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +18.4%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -11.6%

Lindo FF (A) 14.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -31.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nykoping face Lindo FF in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nykoping a 64% chance, the draw 22% and Lindo FF 14%, so Nykoping are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Nykoping and 0.7 for Lindo FF (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nykoping are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.33 for Lindo FF. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Nykoping vs Lindo FF Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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