Today / Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland / Vaxjo Norra vs Linero

Vaxjo Norra vs Linero Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland

Södra Götaland - 8 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 12:00

Vaxjo Norra

PPG 2.33 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Linero

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-110.5%0-25.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.2%1-113.2%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.3%2-18.3%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.5%3-13.5%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 52.4% 1.91 -17.1%

Draw 30.1% 27.4% 3.65 +9.9%

Away win 26.5% 30.8% 3.25 -8.3%

Over 2.5 45.8% 69.0% 1.45 -33.6%

Over 3.5 19.1% 47.6% 2.10 -35.9%

BTTS 52.1% 71.4% 1.40 -27.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -55.7%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.1%

H 43% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.5%

#3 1–0 13.2%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vaxjo Norra1.3

Linero1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VAXJO NORRA · PPG 2.33

LINERO · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.33), Away EXCELLENT (2.25)

Win probability 1X2

Vaxjo Norra (H) 43.4%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -17.1%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +9.9%

Linero (A) 26.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vaxjo Norra face Linero in Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vaxjo Norra a 43% chance, the draw 30% and Linero 27%, so Vaxjo Norra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Vaxjo Norra and 1.0 for Linero (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vaxjo Norra are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 2.25 for Linero. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +9.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Vaxjo Norra vs Linero Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland Predictions