Today / Al Adalha vs Al Jubail

Al Adalha vs Al Jubail Prediction

Thursday, May 14, 2026

Al Adalha

PPG 0.94 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Jubail

PPG 0.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-14.7%0-23.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.5%1-19.5%1-26.0%1-32.5%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.7%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.2%3-16.5%3-24.1%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-15.3%4+-23.4%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% — — —

Draw 25.0% — — —

Away win 23.6% — — —

Over 2.5 60.1% — — —

Over 3.5 41.9% — — —

BTTS 58.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.6%

H 51% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 3–1 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Adalha2.0

Al Jubail1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 41.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ADALHA · PPG 0.94

AL JUBAIL · PPG 0.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: POOR form (0.94) vs P(Home)=51.4%

Win probability 1X2

Al Adalha (H) 51.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Al Jubail (A) 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Adalha face Al Jubail on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Adalha a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Al Jubail 24%, so Al Adalha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Al Adalha and 1.3 for Al Jubail (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Adalha are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 0.06 for Al Jubail. This match finished 1-3.

Al Adalha vs Al Jubail Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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