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Gomel vs Baranovichi Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Regular Season - 8 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 15:00

Gomel

PPG 2.33 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Baranovichi

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.33), Away POOR (0.25) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-12.0%0-20.3%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.3%1-14.9%1-20.8%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-018.8%2-16.0%2-21.0%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-015.4%3-14.9%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-016.9%4+-15.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.2% — — —

Draw 21.1% — — —

Away win 7.8% — — —

Over 2.5 52.3% — — —

Over 3.5 30.3% — — —

BTTS 41.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -16.9%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob41.8%

H 71% / xG 2.5-0.3 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 18.8%

#2 3–0 15.4%

#3 1–0 15.3%

#4 4–0 9.4%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gomel2.5

Baranovichi0.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GOMEL · PPG 2.33

BARANOVICHI · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.33), Away POOR (0.25) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Gomel (H) 71.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Baranovichi (A) 7.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gomel face Baranovichi in Belarus - Premier League on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gomel a 71% chance, the draw 21% and Baranovichi 8%, so Gomel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Gomel and 0.3 for Baranovichi (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gomel are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.25 for Baranovichi. This match finished 2-3.

Gomel vs Baranovichi Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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