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Kuchl vs Kitzbuhel Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

West - 29 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 15:00

Kuchl

PPG 2.08 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kitzbuhel

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.5%0-23.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.9%1-111.2%1-26.4%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.7%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.9%3-15.5%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.5%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 57.1% 1.75 -10.2%

Draw 25.0% 25.0% 4.00 0.0%

Away win 23.7% 29.4% 3.40 -11.7%

Over 2.5 54.9% 61.7% 1.62 -11.1%

Over 3.5 32.0% 40.2% 2.49 -20.3%

BTTS 54.6% 64.1% 1.56 -14.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kuchl1.7

Kitzbuhel1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KUCHL · PPG 2.08

KITZBUHEL · PPG 1.23

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.08) vs P(Home)=51.3%

Win probability 1X2

Kuchl (H) 51.3%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -10.2%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV 0.0%

Kitzbuhel (A) 23.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kuchl face Kitzbuhel in Austria - Regionalliga - West on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kuchl a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Kitzbuhel 24%, so Kuchl are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Kuchl and 1.1 for Kitzbuhel (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kuchl are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 1.23 for Kitzbuhel. This match finished 3-1.

Kuchl vs Kitzbuhel Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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