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Metalist 1925 vs Kudrivka Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:30

Metalist 1925

PPG 1.91 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Kudrivka

PPG 0.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDD

// Model verdict

Home 69% chance

Model probability 74.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a clear edge.

+11.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-13.9%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-020.2%1-17.3%1-21.3%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-018.8%2-16.8%2-21.2%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-011.7%3-14.2%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-13.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.3% 66.7% 1.50 +11.5%

Draw 19.4% 26.7% 3.75 -27.3%

Away win 6.3% 16.1% 6.20 -60.9%

Over 2.5 38.4% 51.3% 1.95 -25.1%

Over 3.5 18.6% 29.4% 3.40 -36.8%

BTTS 25.5% 50.0% 2.00 -49.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob25.5%

H 74% / xG 1.9-0.4 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 26%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 20.2%

#2 2–0 18.8%

#3 3–0 11.7%

#4 0–0 10.8%

#5 1–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Metalist 19251.9

Kudrivka0.4

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.4% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

METALIST 1925 · PPG 1.91

KUDRIVKA · PPG 0.45

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

69%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.91), Away POOR (0.45) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Metalist 1925 (H) 74.3%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV +11.5%

Draw 19.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -27.3%

Kudrivka (A) 6.3%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV -60.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Metalist 1925 face Kudrivka in Ukraine - Premier League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Metalist 1925 a 74% chance, the draw 19% and Kudrivka 6%, so Metalist 1925 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Metalist 1925 and 0.4 for Kudrivka (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 26% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Metalist 1925 are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 0.45 for Kudrivka. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Metalist 1925 vs Kudrivka Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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